Research article: The impact of the government's defense and security spending on social welfare in periods of recession and prosperity in the country.

Document Type : research Artichel

Authors

1 PhD student, Economic Sciences, Lorestan University, Faculty of Management and Economics, Department of Economics, Lorestan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Economic Sciences, Lorestan University, Faculty of Management and Economics, Department of Economics, Lorestan, Iran, responsible author.

3 Full Professor, Economic Sciences, Bo Ali Sina University, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Department of Economics, Hamedan, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Economic Sciences, Lorestan University, Faculty of Management and Economics, Department of Economics, Lorestan, Iran.

Abstract

Abstract
Government expenditures in the fields of defense, order and security play a central and effective role in maintaining territorial integrity and creating stability in societies; Therefore, how to allocate the government's budget in these areas with the goals of creating stability and increasing social welfare in societies effectively depends on a correct understanding of the country's economic situation. The aim of the current research is to investigate the effect of the total government expenditure and the effect of the government expenditure on defense affairs and its related seasons, including order, security and defense, on the social welfare index (Amartiasen) during business cycles in the Iranian economy. For this purpose, the non-linear self-explanatory model with wide intervals has been used for the evaluation and analysis of information during the period of 1352-1398.
   The results of the research show that the positive shocks of the government spending in defense affairs and the defense season in periods of recession, as well as in the season of order and security in periods of prosperity, have led to an increase in social well-being. This is despite the fact that the negative shocks of the government's expenditures in defense affairs and the seasons of defense and order and security in periods of prosperity and also in the season of defense in periods of recession have also increased social welfare; in addition, the shocks Positive and negative total government spending during commercial periods has caused a decrease and an increase in social welfare, respectively; Therefore, it can be claimed that the mentioned results imply that the effects of government spending components on social welfare are asymmetric.
 
 
 

Keywords


  1. احمدوند، نرگس؛ علیزاده، محمد؛ فطرس، محمدحسن؛ دلفان، محبوبه (1399)، حصول سهم بهینۀ مخارج د‌‌ولت از تولید‌‌ ناخالص د‌‌اخلی با هد‌‌ف حد‌‌اکثرسازی رفاه اجتماعی (با تأکید‌‌ بر امور و فصول بود‌‌جۀ عمومی د‌‌ولت)، فصلنامۀ رفاه اجتماعی، س 20، ش 79، صص ۱۵۳-۱۹۵.
  2. اشرفی، یکتا؛ سلیمی فر، مصطفی؛ عادلی، محمدحسین؛ توکلیان، حسین (1397)، بررسی اثر مخارج دولت بر رفاه در ایران: کاربرد الگوهای تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی، فصلنامۀ پژوهش­ها و سیاست­های اقتصادی، س 26، ش 85، صص 82-33.
  3. امینی، علیرضا؛ مرادزاده، سلاله (1394)، تحلیل تأثیر آزادسازی تجاری بر نرخ بیکاری: مطالعۀ موردی کشورهای منتخب درحال‌توسعه، فصلنامۀ علوم اقتصادی، س 9، ش 31، صص 93-77.
  4. انتظار، الناز؛ نجفی، مینا (1397)، تبیین آثار غیرخطی مخارج دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران در ادوار تجاری (رهیافت مدل چرخشی مارکوف با ضرایب متغیر)، فصلنامۀ مهندسی تصمیم، س 2، ش 7، صص 133-116.
  5. برخورداری، سجاد؛ عبدی، مائده؛ سولگی، صدیقه (1396)، راﺑﻄۀ رﺷﺪ درآﻣﺪ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ، اﻋﺘﺒﺎرات درﯾﺎﻓﺘﯽ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار و ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮی درآﻣﺪی، موردمطالعه: استان‌های اﯾﺮان، فصلنامۀ پژوهشنامۀ اقتصادی، س 18، ش 69، صص 132-107.
  6. حسینی، سید مهدی؛ عبدی، علیرضا؛ غیبی، علیرضا؛ فدایی، ایمان (1387)، ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ اﺟﺰای ﻣﺨﺎرج دوﻟﺖ و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ آن ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺑﺎ اﻣﻮر و فصول بودجۀ عمومی دولت، فصلنامۀ پژوهش­ها و سیاست­های اقتصادی، س 16، ش 48، صص 63-37.
  7. زائری، محمد؛ ندری، کامران (1392)، محاسبۀ هزینه­های رفاهی در ایران، فصلنامۀ راهبرد اقتصادی، س 2، ش 4، صص 71-40.
  8. سامتی، مرتضی؛ صامتی، مجید؛ قضاوی، رسول (1387)، بررسی اثر ترکیب بودجۀ دولت بر رفاه اجتماعی در ایران: دوره ‌زمانی (1382-1360)، فصلنامۀ توسعه و سرمایه، س 1، ش 2، صص 70- 49.
  9. سلیمی‎فر، مصطفی؛ داودی، آزاده؛ عربی، ادیب (1394)، بررسی تأثیر ترکیب بودجه­ای دولت بر شاخص­های رفاه در ایران، فصلنامۀ علمی-پژوهشی راهبرد اقتصادی، س 3، ش 12، صص 180-153.
  10. شمس‌الدینی، علی؛ گرجیان، پروین (1389)، عوامل مؤثر در مهاجرت روستاییان به شهرها، با تأکید بر شبکۀ مهاجرت (مورد: دهستان رستم دو)، فصلنامۀ مطالعات برنامه­ریزی سکونت­گاه­های انسانی، س 5، ش 11، صص 92-75.
  11. موحدی، مسعود؛ سیاوش آبکناری، مسعود (1396)، شناسایی شاخص­های امنیت و آمادگی دفاعی و بررسی اثر آن­ها بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب و ارائۀ راهکارهای سیاستی برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران، س 2، ش 6، صص 121-99.
  12. نادمی، یونس؛ مفتخری، علی (1396)، حد بهینۀ فعالیت­های دولت و رفاه اجتماعی در ایران طی سال­های 1391-1354: رویکرد سری زمانی غیرخطی، فصلنامۀ رفاه اجتماعی، س 17، ش 67، صص 35-9.

 

ب. منابع انگلیسی

  1. Aye, G., Balcilar, M. Dunne, P., Gupta, R., & van Eyden, R. (2014). Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability, Defense and Peace Economics, 25(6), 619-633.
  2. Batchelor, P., Dunne, P., & Saal, D. (2000). Military spending and economic growth in South Africa.Defense and Peace Economics, 11(4), 553-571.
  3. Baranowski, P., Krajewski, P., Mackiewicz, M., & Szymańska, A. (2016). The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(8), 1910-1921.
  4. Benoit, E. (1978). Defence and growth in developing countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
  5. Bulir, A. (2001). Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?. IMF Working Paper, 48(1).
  6. Caruso, R., & Biscione, A. (2018). Military Expenditures and Income Inequality Evidence from A Panel of Transition Countries (1990-2015). Cespic Working Paper, No. 123.
  7. Dunne, P. (1996). Economic Effects of Military spending in Developing Countries: a survey, in The Peace Dividend (Contributions to Economic Analysis), chapter 23, North Holland, Amsterdam, 439–464.
  8. D’Agostino, G., Dunne, P., & Pieroni, L. (2011). Optimal Military Spending in the US: A time series analysis. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 1068-1077.
  9. Haile, F., & Nino-Zarazua, M. (2018). Dose Social Spending Improve Welfare in Low-Income and Middle Income Countries? Journal of International Development, 30, 367–398.
  10. Hasnul, A.G. (2016). The Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: The case of Malaysia, INCEIF, Global University of Islamic Finance, MPRA Paper, No. 71254.
  11. Jouini, J. (2018). Measuring The Macroeconomic Impacts of Fiscal Policy Shocks in The Saudi Economy: A Markov Switching Approac. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting – Xxi (4), 55-70.
  12. Knight, J., & Sabot, R.H. (1983). Educational Expansion and the Kuznets Effect. American Economic Review, 73(5), 1132-1136.
  13. Kollias, C., Mylonidis, N., & Paleologou, S.M. (2007) A Panel Data Analysis of the Nexus Between Defence Spending and Growth in the European Union, Defense and Peace Economics, 18, 75 –85.
  14. Kusi, N. K. (1994) Economic growth and defense spending in developing countries: a causal analysis, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38, 152–159.
  15. nonlinear unit root test. Defense and Peace Economics, 1, 1-20.
  16. MCCulloch, N., & Winter, L., & Cirera, X. (2003). Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: A Handbook. Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1-384.      
  17. Mintz, A., & Huang, (1990). Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’. The American Political Science Review, 84, 1283–1293.
  18. Mintz, A., & Stevenson, T. (1995). Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’:A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39 (2), 283–305.
  19. Menla, A. F., & Dimitrakib, O. (2014). Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis. Applied Economics, 46(28), 3408-3420
  20. Majeski, S. J. (1992). Defense Budgeting, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Performance, London: Routledge, 217–237.
  21. Phiri, A. (2016). Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa? MPRA Paper, No.69730.
  22. Pieroni, L. (2009) Military Expenditure and Economic Growth, Defense and Peace Economics, 20, 327–339.
  23. Saba, Ch., & Ngepah, N. (2010). Nexus Between Defense Spending, Economic Growth And Development: Evidence From A Disaggregated Panel Data Analysis, Economic Change and Restructuring.
  24. Sen, A. K. (1973). On Economic Equality. Oxford, UK, Clarendon Press, 1, 1-267.
  25. Sen, A. K. (1974). Information Bases of Alternative Welfare Approaches. Journal of Public Economics, 3, 387-403.
  26. Shieh, J., Lai, C., & Chang, W. (2002) The Impact of Military Burden On Long-Run Growth and Welfare, Journal of Development Economics, 68, 443–454.
  27. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Co Integration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework, Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, 281–314.
  28. Yolcu Karadam, D., Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2016). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach, Defense and Peace Economics.