نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
مدیر
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Surprise is a phenomenon encountered by all systems in various forms and degrees, often threatening their survival. Surprise constitutes a cognitive state elicited by unexpected events. Its inherent characteristics, including rapid onset and cognitive dissonance, can compromise the decision-making process. This research aims to develop a model for comprehending the phenomenon of surprise. The present study is a type of fundamental research with a qualitative approach and using grounded theory. Accordingly, 35 in-depth interviews were conducted with specialists and experts in various fields on how surprises occur, and after analyzing the data, 6215 open codes, 200 components, and 30 subcategories were identified and finally modeled using the paradigm model of grounded theory. Analysis reveals that surprise arises from three categories of causal conditions: capability-based, intention-based, and environment-based components. Contextual factors include space-time and context-speed components; while intervening conditions encompass outer layer and uncertainty components. Therefore, effective surprise mitigation relies on systematic analysis of causal factors and the application of strategic foresight. This approach facilitates the identification of weak signals, the modeling of system behavior, and ultimately, a reduction in the likelihood of unexpected events. Therefore, the main strategies for understanding surprise include using systematic thinking in paying attention to causal conditions and employing strategic intelligence, which can lead to outcomes such as identifying weak signals and processing scenarios related to system behavior, and consequently reducing surprise from rare events.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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