نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The study of all aspects of population structure changes, whether involving growth or decline, is inherently linked to multiple influencing factors. Macro-trends affecting the age structure of a country's population encompass numerous secondary trends with extensive consequences that lie beyond the control of individual actors. These macro-trends, shaped by key drivers and pivotal factors in the demographic domain, can induce significant transformations in population structures. The present research aims to identify environmental macro-trends, key factors, and drivers influencing changes in the age structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran's population, with particular emphasis on military defense considerations.This study adopts a descriptive-analytical research methodology. Data were collected from a statistical population of 30 experts and subsequently analyzed to derive final conclusions. The research findings reveal that three primary environmental macro-trends - "economic changes," "cultural changes," and "social changes" - interact with four key factors (mortality, migration, infertility, and population development policies) and three drivers (cognitive warfare, technology, and lifestyle) to significantly impact the country's age structure, particularly in relation to military defense. These dynamics are projected to lead to a substantial population decline in Iran.The intersection of these demographic forces presents unique challenges for national defense planning. The anticipated population decrease, coupled with aging trends, may affect military recruitment pools and necessitate adaptations in defense strategy. Furthermore, the identified drivers, especially technological advancements and cognitive warfare considerations, will likely shape future defense requirements in the context of these demographic shifts.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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