نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی- پژوهشکده مدیریت راهبردی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
This study was conducted with the aim of scenario writing for the future developments of training and education in the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy. In terms of purpose, it is classified as applied–developmental, and in terms of nature, as a descriptive– survey study employing a mixed- methods approach. The statistical population comprised Navy education and training managers, subject-matter experts, and veteran instructors. Purposeful sampling was used to select 11 participants for the qualitative stage and 30 for the quantitative stage. Data collection employed library research through note- taking, and field studies through expert panel sessions and a structured questionnaire. Expert sessions continued until theoretical saturation, and the questionnaire’s face and content validity were confirmed by experts. Reliability, calculated via Cronbach’s alpha using SPSS, was 0.891, indicating high internal consistency. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, while the importance of questionnaire items was ranked using the Shannon entropy method. Scenarios were developed based on the optimized Global Business Network model and identified key uncertainties, resulting in four distinct scenarios: "Raising sails", "Cross swell", "calm before the storm" and "turbulent sea". Finally, actionable strategies were proposed to achieve the desired future vision for IRIN’s education and training system.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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